# Five-Minute Market Breadth Check Kit

This kit helps a small business owner read what sits under a single index number, then turn that read into rules made in advance for cash, variable-rate debt and big purchases. It doesn't predict the market. It gives you a weekly one-page habit: write down a few readings, mark which agree, and decide by rule instead of by mood. Print it, fill it in on Friday, and keep the pages. This is education, not investment, tax or legal advice.

## Checklist

- [ ] Pick one Friday time each week and put it on the calendar.
- [ ] Write the date next to every number you record.
- [ ] Record the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) daily move.
- [ ] Record the biggest single-stock move among the heaviest holdings.
- [ ] Label the day "narrow" if the index moved under 1% but one heavy stock moved more than 4% (or your own written threshold).
- [ ] Record the VIX and its change over 30 days if shown.
- [ ] Record a high-yield credit spread in basis points (free from FRED).
- [ ] Record the latest CPI headline and core, plus the prior month's.
- [ ] Record weekly fund flows if you can find them.
- [ ] Mark each reading calm, stressed or unclear.
- [ ] Require two or more readings pointing the same way before changing any plan.
- [ ] Confirm every price you quote is current, not a stale print.
- [ ] Check that operating cash (at least your chosen months of payroll) is separate from market-exposed money.
- [ ] Set one reminder for the next CPI release and one for the next weekly fund-flow report.
- [ ] Write down what would change your mind before you act.

## Worksheet: the Friday page

Week of: ____________  Completed on: ____________

| Reading | Value | Data date | Calm / Stressed / Unclear |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index move (SPY) | | | |
| Biggest single-stock move | | | |
| VIX (and 30-day change) | | | |
| High-yield credit spread (bp) | | | |
| CPI headline (YoY) | | | |
| CPI core (YoY) | | | |
| Weekly fund flows | | | |

Narrow day? (index under 1%, one heavy stock over 4%): Yes / No

How many readings agree? ______  Which conflict? ________________________________

Decision this week (circle one): Hold / Delay purchase / Call bank / Change nothing

What would change my mind: ________________________________________________

## Breadth rule card

**Narrow day.** The index barely moves but one heavy stock moves a lot. Example: November 10, SPY down 0.37% while Nvidia fell 5.47%. The index number understated what one heavy stock did. Label it narrow and don't treat the index as the whole story.

**Broad day.** Many holdings move the same direction by similar amounts. A move is more trustworthy as a market-wide signal when most stocks agree.

**Uneven leadership on a big day.** November 9: SPY up 2.37% and QQQ up 3.54%, yet Nvidia fell 4.27% while Tesla rose 5.54%. Big index days can still hide split leadership.

**Calm indicators don't cancel others.** On November 10 the VIX read 19.92 and the high-yield spread 334bp, but October CPI rose to 4.08% headline and funds saw $36.5B of outflows. One calm reading doesn't overrule rising inflation or heavy outflows.

**The VIX moves fast.** 25.64 on November 9 and 19.92 on November 10. Never anchor on one reading.

## If-then rule template

Write these before you need them.

1. If core CPI rises above ____% (example: 3.5%), then I will call my bank about fixing ____% of my variable-rate line within ____ days.
2. If operating cash falls below ____ months of payroll ($______), then I pause discretionary purchases until it is restored.
3. If equities in my retirement account exceed ____% of the portfolio (example: 65%), then I rebalance back to ____% and note the date.
4. If a purchase over $______ is on the table, then I complete the data-date checklist below and ask my accountant or advisor to review it first.
5. If two or more readings turn stressed together, then I schedule a conversation with ______________ within ____ days. I don't act the same day.

## Data-date and source checklist

- [ ] Does the number have a visible date? If not, mark it unclear.
- [ ] Is the date current, or is it days old? (Example: a WTI $99.64 and Brent $107.03 reading was dated November 3, eight days old, while another report put Brent below $92.)
- [ ] Do two sources disagree? Note both numbers, both dates, and don't average them.
- [ ] Is the source the original publisher (BLS, FRED, ICI) or a summary?
- [ ] Is a forecast or probability (such as a stated 60%) presented as a judgment, not a fact?
- [ ] Have I recorded what would reverse the claim?

## Worked examples (hypothetical)

**Maria, 12-person HVAC company in Ohio.** Cash $180,000. Variable-rate line $250,000 at prime plus 1.5%. Weighing a $90,000 van purchase. Page: index -0.37%, biggest stock -5.47%, VIX 19.92, spread 334bp, CPI 4.08% / core 3.06%. Two readings calm, two stressed, so she labels it unclear. Rule: if core CPI rises above 3.5%, she asks her bank about fixing half the line ($125,000). After the purchase, cash would be $90,000, so she also sets a pause rule below two months of payroll.

**Dev, 30-seat restaurant.** $60,000 in a business money market account, payroll $45,000 a month, two months liquid means $90,000 across his accounts. He compares his account yield to 4.08% headline inflation, and sets a date to re-check after the next CPI release instead of moving cash on a calm VIX plus outflow headline.

**Two-partner accounting firm.** SEP-IRA with 60% in an S&P 500 fund. SPY down 0.37% looked like nothing, but one stock fell 5.47% inside it. They check the fund's top ten holdings concentration and write a trigger: rebalance if equities exceed 65%.

**Import business, $400,000 of financed inventory.** One dated series shows oil near $100, while vessel trackers show Gulf flows near pre-war levels. They list both signals, choose the cost they can control (freight quotes, supplier payment terms), and set a note to revisit pricing when new dated crude and diesel readings replace the stale ones.

## Prompt templates

```text
I run a [type of business] with [months] months of operating cash and a variable-rate line of credit of $[amount]. Using only the figures I paste below, build me a one-page Friday market check with rows for: S&P 500 ETF daily move, largest single-stock move among the top five holdings, VIX, a high-yield credit spread, latest CPI headline and core, and weekly fund flows. Add a column for calm, stressed, or unclear. If any number is missing a date, mark it unclear. If you are unsure about anything, say so instead of guessing.
```

```text
Here are this week's readings with dates: [paste]. Which agree and which conflict? Explain in plain English. Do not tell me to buy or sell. If a conclusion would need data I haven't given you, tell me what is missing.
```

```text
Help me write if-then rules for my small business. I have $[cash], monthly payroll of $[amount], and a loan at [rate type, rate, balance]. Use my numbers only. Give me three triggers based on inflation readings and volatility, and for each the conversation to have with my bank or accountant. Flag where you are unsure or where a licensed professional should review it.
```

```text
Explain headline versus core CPI and how a gap like 4.08% versus 3.06% might affect my costs and borrowing, using the invoices and loan terms I paste here: [paste]. Tell me where the link is weak or uncertain.
```

```text
Draft a pre-purchase checklist for any purchase over $[amount]. It must make me check data dates and sources, confirm that two or more indicators agree, and ask a licensed advisor to review the plan. Base it on my own cash and loan documents pasted here: [paste]. If they lack information, say what is missing.
```

## Disclaimer

This kit is education only. It is not investment, tax, legal or financial advice. Markets can move against any plan. Size every market-exposed decision to what you can lose without missing payroll or a loan payment, and talk to a licensed professional about your own situation.

## Sources

- https://apprised.news/desk/markets/2026-11-11
- https://apprised.news/desk/markets/2026-11-10
- https://apprised.news/desk/energy/2026-11-11
- https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Middle-East-Oil-Flows-Far-from-Normal-Despite-Signs-of-Oversupply.html
- https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/06/coreweave-bond-yield-tops-16percent-as-ai-credit-stress-rises.html
- https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/news/oil-price-today-november-10-crude-oil-falls-below-92-as-trump-says-iran-war-is-effectively-over-what-lies-ahead/articleshow/135696913.cms