# Chokepoint Cost Kit: Fuel and Freight Stress Test, Pricing Clauses and Decision Triggers

**Purpose.** This kit helps a small business find out what higher diesel, gasoline and freight costs would do to its profit, write fuel-adjustment language into its quotes and invoices, and decide in advance which signals justify acting. It is built for businesses with fixed-price quotes or printed menus and costs that move with fuel. Print it, fill it in with your own numbers, and keep it with your pricing files. It is not legal or financial advice. Prices used in examples are illustrative.

## One-page summary: the 1907 lesson in plain English

In the Panic of 1907, J.P. Morgan gathered New York's bankers and kept them in his library until they agreed to fund failing trust companies. The point: in a panic, the party that controls the choke point and the clearing terms sets the price, and everyone else absorbs it. Today the choke point is the Strait of Hormuz, and the clearing terms are the insurance and escort arrangements that decide whether cargo moves. You can't control that. You can control whether your prices survive it.

Key facts as of November 9, 2026 (from Apprised.news desks): WTI $99.64, Brent $107.03, VIX 28.18, high-yield spreads 3.48% (calm), headline CPI 3.74% vs core 2.57%. US crude inventories barely moved and Henry Hub gas is $2.63, so $100 oil looks like a risk premium on an unresolved Gulf situation, not a confirmed shortage. Iranian state outlets disagree on how many tankers are burning. Treat tanker claims as unconfirmed until independent tracking data agrees.

## Checklist

- [ ] List every cost line that moves with diesel, gasoline, natural gas or freight.
- [ ] Pull 12 months of fuel receipts, fuel-card statements and freight invoices.
- [ ] Fill in the exposure worksheet below and compute the +10%, +25% and +40% scenarios.
- [ ] Compare the +25% scenario to your expected annual profit.
- [ ] Add a fuel-adjustment clause or delivery surcharge to new quotes and renewals, tied to a published index.
- [ ] Shorten quote validity on fixed-price bids to 15 to 30 days and put an expiry date on every proposal.
- [ ] Send the supplier question list to your top three suppliers and note the answers.
- [ ] Get one alternate quote for your most freight-heavy purchase.
- [ ] Write your decision triggers on the card below and tape it where you set prices.
- [ ] Confirm your line of credit availability and covenant terms while credit is calm.
- [ ] Decide whether a 30 to 60 day buffer of fast-moving, freight-sensitive stock is worth its carrying cost.
- [ ] Review routes, delivery batching and minimum order sizes for free delivery.
- [ ] Tell customers about any new clause or surcharge before the next price sheet goes out.

## Worksheet 1: Fuel-and-freight exposure

Fill one row per vehicle group or freight line.

| Line | Units (vehicles or shipments) | Gallons or spend per unit per year | Current price | Annual cost now | Cost at +10% | Cost at +25% | Cost at +40% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vans / trucks | | | | | | | |
| Equipment fuel | | | | | | | |
| Supplier freight surcharges | | | | | | | |
| Imported freight | | | | | | | |
| Other | | | | | | | |
| **Total** | | | | | | | |

Formulas:

- Annual vehicle fuel cost = vehicles x gallons per day x working days x price per gallon
- Scenario cost = annual cost now x (1 + 0.10), (1 + 0.25) or (1 + 0.40)
- Profit hit = scenario total minus current total
- Share of profit lost = profit hit divided by expected annual profit

Worked check: 6 vans x 9 gallons x 260 days x $4.00 = $56,160. At $5.00 it is $70,200. Hit = $14,040.

My expected annual profit: $__________
My profit hit at +25%: $__________
Share of profit lost: __________%

## Worksheet 2: Fuel-adjustment sizing

- Annual fuel and freight hit at +25%: $__________
- Number of invoices or service calls per year: __________
- Per-invoice fuel line needed to cover half the hit: $__________ (hit x 0.5 divided by invoices)
- Contract revenue under renewal this year: $__________
- Fuel-adjustment percentage that covers the other half: __________% (remaining hit divided by contract revenue)

## Template 1: Fuel-adjustment clause (plain English)

```text
FUEL ADJUSTMENT. Prices in this agreement assume diesel at or below $[BASE PRICE] per gallon, measured by [PUBLISHED INDEX NAME] for [REGION] on the first business day of each quarter. If the index is higher on that date, the price of services will increase by [PERCENT]% for each $[STEP] above the base, up to a maximum increase of [CAP]%. Adjustments are made no more than once per quarter and take effect 14 days after written notice. If the index falls back to or below the base price, the adjustment ends at the next quarterly review.
```

Check with a local attorney that wording like this is enforceable where you operate and fits your existing contracts.

## Template 2: Customer notice

```text
Subject: Fuel surcharge effective [DATE]

Hello [NAME],

Starting [DATE], we are adding a fuel surcharge of [AMOUNT OR PERCENT] to [invoices / deliveries / service calls]. Diesel and freight costs have risen, and our prices were set before that happened.

The surcharge follows [INDEX NAME]. We review it every quarter, and it comes off when fuel costs fall back to [BASE LEVEL].

If you have questions, call or reply and I will go through it with you.

[NAME]
```

## Supplier question list

Send these in writing to your top three suppliers and keep the replies.

1. How do you calculate your freight or fuel surcharge (percent of order, per mile, flat)?
2. Which published index, if any, does it follow?
3. When did the surcharge last change, and by how much?
4. How much notice do you give before it changes?
5. Is there a minimum order that waives the surcharge?
6. Can the surcharge be capped or fixed for a set period?
7. If I consolidate orders into fewer deliveries, does the surcharge fall?

## Decision-trigger card

Cut this out. Fill in the action column yourself.

| Signal | Threshold | Why it matters | My action |
|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | Above 25 for several sessions | Market is paying for protection, not just spiking for a day | |
| High-yield credit spreads | Moving from about 348bps toward 400bps | Lenders are starting to worry, so a genuine repricing is under way | |
| Tanker-tracking data | Independent confirmation of a closure or a working lane | Separates real physical disruption from headlines | |
| My local diesel price | Up [__]% from my base for [__] weeks | This is the number that hits my P&L | |
| Headlines alone | A single outlet or state-media claim | Unconfirmed claims move prices, then reverse | Hold |

If both the VIX and credit spreads move together, treat it as a genuine repricing. If volatility fades while spreads stay flat, treat the shock as transitory.

## Worksheet 3: 30 to 60 day inventory buffer

- Fast-moving, freight-sensitive item: __________
- Units sold per day: __________
- Buffer days (30 or 60): __________
- Units to hold = units per day x buffer days: __________
- Cost per unit: $__________
- Cash tied up = units to hold x cost per unit: $__________
- Monthly carrying cost (storage + capital) as a percent of cash tied up: __________%
- Surcharge or price rise you would avoid per unit: $__________
- Worth it if units to hold x avoided rise is greater than carrying cost over the buffer period.

## Prompts to paste into an AI assistant

Always give the AI your own documents, and ask it to say when it is unsure.

```text
I run a [type of business] with [number] vehicles. Below are my last 12 months of fuel receipts and freight invoices: [paste]. Using only these numbers, build a table showing my annual fuel and freight cost today and if prices rise 10%, 25% and 40%. Show the arithmetic. List which cost lines you could not find enough data for and say where you are guessing.
```

```text
Draft a fuel-adjustment clause in plain English for my quotes and service contracts. It should reference a published diesel price index, use a trigger threshold, adjust no more than once a quarter, and end automatically when the index falls back. My typical job is $[amount] and fuel is about [percent] of my cost. Here is my current contract wording: [paste]. Point out conflicts with my existing terms, and tell me if you are unsure the clause is enforceable where I operate.
```

```text
Here is my supplier price sheet and annual purchases by category: [paste]. Rank which purchases are most exposed to freight and fuel increases, and show the dollar impact if each surcharge rises by 3 points. Suggest three ways to reduce exposure without hurting service. If a supplier's surcharge method is not in what I gave you, say so instead of assuming one.
```

```text
Write a short, honest customer notice explaining that I am adding a fuel surcharge of [amount or percent], effective [date]. Say how it is calculated, what index it follows, and that it comes off when costs fall. Keep it under 150 words. Use only facts I have given you.
```

```text
Using only the information I give you, build a one-page decision rule for my business. My inputs: [fuel spend, margin, cash on hand, line of credit terms]. Consider these signals: VIX above 25 for several sessions, high-yield spreads moving toward 400 basis points, independently confirmed tanker disruption, and my local diesel price. For each, say whether I should raise prices, hold, or buy extra inventory, and which headlines to ignore. If my numbers are too thin to support a recommendation, tell me what is missing.
```

## Sources

- https://apprised.news/desk/markets/2026-11-09
- https://apprised.news/desk/markets/2026-11-08
- https://apprised.news/desk/energy/2026-11-09
- https://gcaptain.com/iraq-has-reached-understandings-with-us-to-allow-oil-exports-through-hormuz/
- https://presstv.co.uk/Detail/2026/11/08/780252/irgc-navy-three-oil-tankers-engulfed-in-flames-in-strait-of-hormuz-after-maritime-violations
- https://en.irna.ir/news/86316283/Iranian-Army-reports-another-tanker-fire-in-east-of-Hormuz
- https://www.freightwaves.com/news/intermodal-rates-coming-in-hot-this-fall-mostly-fuel-driven