# Oil-Shock Input Control Kit

Purpose: Brent is near $123 and WTI near $103, and for most small businesses the damage arrives through fuel, freight and petroleum-based materials rather than through weaker sales. This kit helps you map what oil actually costs you, decide what to lock in or cushion, write price triggers before the next headline, and be ready to buy when others have to sell. Print it, fill it in with your own numbers, and keep the weekly card near your desk. Every dollar figure in the examples is hypothetical; replace them with yours.

## Checklist

- [ ] List every cost line that moves with oil: fuel, freight in and out, packaging, resin and plastics, solvents, asphalt, fertilizer, supplier surcharges.
- [ ] Rank those lines by dollars per month and circle the top three.
- [ ] Compute your sensitivity: monthly gallons or shipping spend times a $1.00 per gallon or 10% rise, then compare it to monthly profit.
- [ ] Write a price-adjustment trigger (a named fuel index, a level, a duration) and date it.
- [ ] Add a fuel or materials surcharge clause to every new quote and renewal.
- [ ] Get a second supplier quote and a second carrier quote for your one or two biggest inputs.
- [ ] Ask suppliers for 60 to 120 day fixed-price terms; consider a fuel card with price protection.
- [ ] Decide which non-perishable petroleum-linked inputs are worth extra stock, only where carrying cost is lower than the risk.
- [ ] Arrange cash or an undrawn credit line equal to 6 to 8 weeks of exposed costs while credit is calm.
- [ ] Cut use first: cluster routes, set idle limits, set delivery minimums, consolidate order days.
- [ ] Fill in the downturn opportunity list so you know what you would buy and how you would pay.
- [ ] Check the four weekly numbers every week and act on your written triggers, not on headlines.

## Worksheet 1: Oil-linked cost inventory

| Line item | Monthly dollars | Oil sensitivity (low / medium / high) | Number of suppliers | Backup supplier named? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fuel | | | | |
| Freight in | | | | |
| Freight out | | | | |
| Packaging | | | | |
| Resin / plastics | | | | |
| Solvents / chemicals | | | | |
| Supplier surcharges | | | | |
| Other: | | | | |

Rank by monthly dollars. Anything with one supplier and no backup goes to the top of your to-do list.

## Worksheet 2: Fuel and freight sensitivity (copy into a spreadsheet)

```text
A1: Monthly gallons of fuel              (enter)
A2: Price rise per gallon                (enter, e.g. 1.00)
A3: Monthly fuel hit                     =A1*A2
A4: Annual fuel hit                      =A3*12
B1: Monthly freight spend                (enter)
B2: Freight rise percentage              (enter, e.g. 0.10)
B3: Monthly freight hit                  =B1*B2
C1: Total monthly hit                    =A3+B3
C2: Monthly operating profit             (enter)
C3: Share of profit consumed             =C1/C2
C4: Surcharge per job needed to cover    =C1/(jobs per month)
```

Worked check (hypothetical): 2,400 gallons times $1.00 gives $2,400 a month, or $28,800 a year. On $60,000 annual profit, that is 48%.

## Worksheet 3: Pricing-trigger policy (fill in)

- Index I will monitor: ____________________
- Level that triggers a price review: ____________________
- How long it must stay there: ______ days
- Costs included in the review: ____________________
- Who decides: ____________________
- Review dates (monthly): ____________________
- Customer notice period: ______ days
- Written on (date): ____________________

## Worksheet 4: Cash and credit buffer

- Monthly exposed costs (fuel, freight, oil-linked materials): $__________
- Weeks of buffer target (6 to 8): ______
- Buffer needed: monthly exposed costs / 4.33 x weeks = $__________
- Cash on hand earmarked: $__________
- Undrawn credit line available: $__________
- Gap to close: $__________
- Interest cost if drawn: amount x rate / 12 = $__________ per month

## Worksheet 5: Downturn opportunity list

| What I would want to buy (equipment, inventory, a competitor's customers) | Rough price | Financing needed | What would make it available |
|---|---|---|---|
| | | | |
| | | | |
| | | | |

## Template 1: Surcharge clause

```text
Fuel and materials adjustment. Prices in this agreement assume [index name] at or below [level]. If [index name] averages above [level] for the calendar month, [your business] may add a surcharge of [amount or percentage] to invoices for that month and the following month. The surcharge will be removed when the index averages at or below [level] for a calendar month. We will notify you in writing at least [number] days before any surcharge applies.
```

## Template 2: Customer announcement email

```text
Subject: A change to our pricing starting [date]

Hello [name],

Fuel and freight costs have risen sharply this year, and we have held our prices as long as we reasonably can. Starting [date], we will add a [amount/percentage] fuel adjustment to invoices. It is tied to [index name] and is reviewed monthly, so it comes off when costs come down. Our base prices have not changed.

If you have questions, call me directly at [number].

[Your name]
```

## Template 3: Supplier lock-in request

```text
Subject: 90-day price lock and supply continuity

Hello [supplier contact],

We would like to place [volume] over the next 90 days at a fixed price, if you can hold one. Please tell us: (1) the price you can fix and for how long, (2) which of our items depend on petroleum-based inputs or long shipping lanes, and (3) your backup plan if supply is disrupted. If a fixed price is not possible, tell us the index and the formula you use for adjustments.

Thank you,
[Your name]
```

## Second-source checklist

- [ ] Quote from a second supplier for each of my top two inputs
- [ ] Quote from a second carrier
- [ ] Minimum order, lead time and payment terms compared
- [ ] Test order placed so the backup actually works
- [ ] Notes on which supplier I will call first if the main one fails

## Weekly watch card

Check once a week and write the number down:

1. Brent crude: __________
2. My local diesel and gasoline price: __________
3. Next EIA weekly petroleum report: crude stocks and gasoline stocks: __________
4. Hormuz transit news (any new tanker incident): __________

Compare to the trigger on Worksheet 3. If the trigger is hit, follow the policy. Do not change prices on a single day's headline.

## AI prompts (paste into your assistant with your own data)

```text
I run [type of business] with [number] vehicles and about [gallons or dollars] of fuel and freight a month. Brent is around $123 and WTI around $103. Using only the figures I paste below, build a table of my oil-linked costs, show what a $1.00 per gallon and a 10% freight increase do to monthly profit, and rank which line to fix first. If any figure is missing or looks implausible, say so rather than guessing.
```

```text
Draft a fuel and materials surcharge clause I can add to quotes and customer contracts for [industry], tied to a published fuel index, with a clear trigger level, a monthly review, and a plain-English explanation to send to customers. Work from my current contract language pasted below and flag anything you are unsure about.
```

```text
Here are my top five suppliers and what I buy from each: [paste list]. Identify which are single-source, which depend on petroleum-based inputs or long shipping lanes, and write a short email asking each for a 90-day price lock and a backup-supply plan. Mark any place where you are guessing.
```

```text
Using my monthly revenue of [amount], cost of goods of [amount] and fuel and freight of [amount], model three scenarios (oil flat, oil to $140, oil falls 20% on a peace deal) and tell me the price change or cost cut needed in each to hold my margin. Show the arithmetic and state your assumptions.
```

```text
Write a one-page pricing-trigger policy for my business using the cost data I paste below: which costs I monitor, the thresholds that trigger a price review, who decides, and how I announce a change to customers. Mark any threshold you chose without enough data.
```

## Sources

- https://apprised.news/desk/energy/2026-11-03
- https://apprised.news/desk/energy/2026-11-02
- https://apprised.news/desk/markets/2026-11-03
- https://apprised.news/desk/markets/2026-11-02
- https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/news/oil-price-today-november-3-crude-oil-falls-as-peace-talk-hopes-outweigh-attacks-will-prices-dip-further/articleshow/135479398.cms
- https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20261101-qatar-condemns-attack-on-lng-tanker-in-gulf-warns-of-threat-to-global-energy-supplies/
- https://www.dawn.com/news/2041775/storage-deficit
- https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-30.html